Nova Scotia’s Housing Starts Show Mixed Trends in September 2024
As we take a closer look at the latest housing start data for September 2024, Nova Scotia’s real estate market has shown notable movements, particularly when compared with previous months and the same period last year. Here’s a detailed breakdown of what we’re seeing:
Monthly Trends: September 2024 vs. August 2024 (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate)
Nova Scotia's housing starts reached a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4,490 units in September 2024, which represents a 13.7% increase from the revised figure of 3,950 units in August.
Halifax experienced a modest rise of 3.0%, with housing starts climbing from 2,522 units in August to 2,598 units in September 2024.
Outside of Halifax, the market saw a more dramatic surge, with housing starts increasing by 32.5%, from 1,428 units in August to 1,892 units in September 2024.
Nationally, Canada's housing starts showed a growth of 5.1%, increasing to a SAAR of 223,808 units from 213,012 units reported in August 2024. Notably, six provinces saw declines in housing starts, with the largest drops in Manitoba and Prince Edward Island, while Saskatchewan recorded the biggest monthly increase.
Year-Over-Year: September 2024 vs. September 2023
Despite the month-to-month growth, the year-over-year comparison reveals a different story for Nova Scotia.
The province saw a significant 48.9% decrease in housing starts compared to September 2023, when the pace was 8,788 units.
Halifax housing starts were down 61.5%, highlighting a sharp decline in the city’s construction activity compared to the same month last year.
Housing starts outside Halifax experienced a smaller decline of 7.3% year-over-year.
Across Canada, housing starts were down 16.0% in September 2024 compared to the previous year, though six provinces did see gains. Nova Scotia's year-over-year decline was the largest in the country, while Saskatchewan and Prince Edward Island posted the most significant growth.
Halifax Housing: Unadjusted Results for September 2024
In Halifax, 230 housing starts were recorded in September, accompanied by 633 completions. This dynamic of completions outpacing starts has resulted in a decrease in the stock of units under construction, which fell to 10,532 units. However, this figure is still 38.2% higher than the same period last year, when 7,619 units were under construction.
Year-to-Date: January-September 2024 vs. January-September 2023
Over the first nine months of 2024, Nova Scotia’s housing starts have increased by 31.0% compared to the same period in 2023.
Halifax saw a strong 54.0% rise in housing starts, while starts outside the city dropped by 4.5%.
Nationally, year-to-date housing starts were up 1.4% across Canada, with Newfoundland and Labrador leading the charge with the fastest percentage increase. Ontario, on the other hand, saw the steepest decline.
Quarterly Analysis: Q3 2024
In the third quarter of 2024, Nova Scotia recorded 1,426 housing starts, which was down 16.9% from Q3 2023, when 1,716 units were started.
Single-detached dwelling starts declined by 4.0%, with 630 units started in Q3 2024 compared to 656 units in Q3 2023.
Multiple dwelling unit starts saw a sharper decline of 24.9%, dropping from 1,060 starts in Q3 2023 to 796 starts in Q3 2024.
Conclusion
While Nova Scotia experienced strong month-over-month growth in September 2024, the year-over-year decline highlights challenges in the housing market. Halifax has seen a significant slowdown compared to last year, but the overall stock of units under construction remains robust. As we move further into the final quarter of the year, we’ll continue to monitor these trends to assess the broader impact on Nova Scotia's housing market and real estate opportunities.
If you're looking to navigate Nova Scotia's evolving real estate market or need expert guidance on buying, selling, don't hesitate to reach out to Chisholm Group today
